July 24, 2025
OPINION: Canada Needs a Reality Check on Northern Cod “Recovery”
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BY: Rebecca Schijns
Topics: Rebuild Ocean Abundance
By Rebecca Schijns, Fishery Scientist, Oceana Canada. Originally published in The Telegram.
Fisheries Minister Thompson’s quota decision for northern cod — a species that has shaped the culture, food security, and economy of Newfoundland and Labrador for generations — will either nurture a true recovery or risk repeating the mistakes that devastated the fishery and the region’s communities three decades ago.
Despite the optimistic headlines, northern cod has not recovered. Ottawa’s fanfare around reopening the commercial cod fishery last year—18,000 tonnes after a 32-year moratorium—suggests the stock is back. In reality, the government’s own science tells a very different story.
The Full Story
Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO)’s March 2025 assessment cuts through the hype. Northern cod remains deeply depleted, with little evidence of meaningful rebuilding underway. Spawning biomass, the total weight of fish that have reached reproductive maturity, sits near 524,000 tonnes. About half of what it was during the productive years from 1954 to 1970, and just a quarter of its pre-fishing abundance. Worse, there is a 56 to 71% chance of further decline. Enough to push the stock back into the critical zone by 2028. This is no triumphant rebound; it is a stalled recovery.
So why the premature celebration? Much of the confusion comes from shifting benchmarks. In 2023, using new data, DFO lowered the limit reference point (LRP), the threshold that separates dangerously low stock levels from the first signs of “recovery”. Lowering it from about 790,000 tonnes to just 260,000. On paper, this lifted northern cod out of the critical zone. Even though the actual number of fish in the water did not change.
Crucially, DFO has yet to set an upper stock reference (USR), the threshold for what a healthy, rebuilt population should look like. Without it, there is no meaningful gauge of success or failure, and no management guardrails to prevent another collapse. Once again, this year’s quota debate is mired in guesswork and conflict.
Northern Cod Biomass
As Figure 1 shows, today’s spawning biomass for northern cod in 2025 remains far below two of DFO’s proposed USR options. And it is even lower than earlier estimates of the LRP.
Figure 1: Northern cod spawning stock biomass (blue line), with 95% confidence intervals (grey dotted lines), 1954-2025. Thresholds are represented by the current LRP (red solid line), previous LRP (light red solid line) and two options (60% B0 and average SSB 1954-1970) proposed by DFO to consider for the USR (green solid lines). Biomass and LRP values from DFO’s technical briefing on 2025 stock status.
Cod cannot rebuild in isolation. Capelin, northern cod’s primary food source, is at just 16% of its historical abundance. Trying to rebuild cod while the capelin population is depleted is like passing an ambitious budget while gutting the revenue department. The foundation is missing, and failure is nearly guaranteed.
Climate change is compounding these risks. Warming waters off Newfoundland and Labrador are shrinking high-quality cod habitat in southern areas and altering fish growth and maturation. Meanwhile, global seafood markets are demanding sustainably harvested, high-quality fish. Increasing fishing pressure now, when the stock is weak and environmental conditions are changing rapidly, is a risky gamble with far-reaching consequences.
Northern cod is classified as a major fish stock under section 6.1 of the Fisheries Act. The Minister is legally required to keep it above the critical zone. Setting a quota that ignores the best available science risks violating the law. It also undermines Canada’s reputation as a responsible fishing nation.
Recovering Cod
A real recovery is possible, but only if we change course. This means:
- Setting ambitious, science-based USR, such as the levels DFO is already considering (Figure 1), and publishing a clear timeline to reach a healthy, rebuilt population.
- Limiting allowable catches to truly precautionary levels, around 13,000 tonnes, and develop harvest rules that support sustained growth beyond the USR.
- Prioritizing the recovery of capelin: pausing the capelin fishery and setting ecosystem-based reference points and harvest rules so cod has a chance to rebuild historic productivity.
These are difficult decisions with real short-term impacts to fishers and their families. Transforming the industry to become more equitable and profitable must be part of the government’s equation, so that no community is left behind as we rebuild. Government can and should support this transition. Ensuring that those who have carried the cost of past collapses have a stake in a better future.
Oceana Canada’s economic analysis shows that a fully rebuilt northern cod fishery could create 16 times more jobs and generate five times more economic value within a decade. Restoring a vital way of life, and a healthy, sustainable fish population for coastal Newfoundland and Labrador.
Minister Thompson, this is your moment to put Canada’s fisheries mandate into practice. Choose strong science over short-term pressure. The payoff is an iconic fish population restored, resilient coastal economies, and Canada’s credibility as a steward of the North Atlantic. Anything less risks turning a fragile recovery into another cautionary tale.
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