Improved Northern Cod Outlook Doesn’t Mean Recovery. Oceana Canada Says the Goal Is Abundance
Press Release Date: April 1, 2026
Media contacts: Vaishali Dassani, Oceana Canada, vdassani@oceana.ca, 647-294-3335;
Rose-Marie Ménard, Pilot PMR, rosemarie.menard@pilotpmr.com, +1-579-622-9925
Halifax, NS, Mi’kma’ki, the ancestral and unceded territory of the Mi’kmaq People – Northern cod is now being described as “healthy,” but scientists say that label risks overstating progress and obscuring how far the stock still has to recover.
Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) completed its latest assessment for the northern cod stock, estimating the population to be in the “healthy zone” with a 70% probability under newly defined benchmarks. But scientists caution that this status label and a rebuilt stock are not the same thing.
This apparent improvement does not reflect a meaningful increase in the amount of cod in the ocean. Instead, the status is largely the result of changes to assessment reference points, including a lowered limit reference point (LRP) — the threshold below which stock size is considered critically depleted — and an upward adjustment of estimated spawning stock biomass (SSB). As a result, the classification has changed more than the underlying reality in the water.
Under the new assessment the “healthy zone” is defined as 80% of biomass at maximum sustainable yield (BMSY), a benchmark that falls short of stronger conservation standards and relies heavily on modelled outputs with significant uncertainties. Scientists and conservationists warn that the designation is overly optimistic and should not be interpreted as a full recovery or used to justify increased fishing pressure.
Below is the response to the latest science from Rebecca Schijns, Fishery Scientist, Oceana Canada:
“While there are some positive signals of recovery, they must be weighed against persistent red flags and the broader context of northern cod rebuilding. Just a few years ago, this same amount of fish was considered critically depleted, and the stock remains well below historically healthy and productive levels.
“The goal of cod management must be clear: rebuilding to abundant levels that can support a resilient ecosystem and a viable, thriving fishery. We’ve seen this before for cod — optimism racing ahead of evidence, quotas rising too fast, and a stock pushed back toward depletion.
“Scientific uncertainty remains high. The assessment model is comprehensive but unstable, total catches are not fully accounted for, and critical ecosystem signals persist. Declaring success too early risks creating a false sense of recovery.
“Cod recovery is inseparable from ecosystem conditions, particularly the availability of capelin, which is alarmingly low at roughly 20% of pre-collapse biomass levels. Yet this relationship is not adequately reflected in quota decisions. A precautionary, ecosystem-based approach is essential.
“The responsible path forward is clear:
- Rebuild cod to truly abundant levels with high certainty, supported by precautionary harvest rules that reflect ongoing uncertainty.
- Ensure full accountability and strong science by accurately monitoring all catches and closing critical data gaps.
- Adopt an ecosystem-based management approach, including climate change impacts and the role of capelin and other key prey in future decisions.
A fishery that has sustained coastal communities for more than 500 years can continue to do so — but only if today’s choices reflect the hard lessons learned through science and history.”
Canada has the science and the law to rebuild cod successfully — but only if decisions reflect long-term abundance.
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Oceana Canada was established as an independent charity in 2015 and is part of the largest international advocacy group dedicated solely to ocean conservation. Oceana Canada has successfully campaigned to ban single-use plastics, end the shark fin trade, make rebuilding depleted fish populations the law, improve the way fisheries are managed and protect marine habitat. We work with civil society, academics, fishers, Indigenous Peoples and governments to return Canada’s formerly vibrant oceans to health and abundance. By restoring Canada’s oceans, we can strengthen our communities, reap greater economic and nutritional benefits, and protect our future. Find out more at Oceana.ca
