Northern Cod at Risk of Being Falsely Labelled “Sustainable”  - Oceana Canada
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June 5, 2026

Northern Cod at Risk of Being Falsely Labelled “Sustainable” 

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Credit: CSSF/ROPOS, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Oceana Canada

 

The stock that inspired the Marine Stewardship Council deserves a credible standard — not moving goalposts 

 Rebecca Schijns, Fishery Scientist, Oceana Canada. Originally published in The Telegram.

Northern cod has entered assessment for Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) certification, and some are framing it as a sustainability milestone for this stock. But northern cod is not just another fishery seeking a sustainable label. Its collapse in the 1990s helped inspire the creation of MSC itself — a global certification system built to prevent fisheries from repeating exactly this kind of failure. That history should demand a high standard of proof. Certifying cod as sustainable now feels like premature celebration and carries serious risks.  

There is genuine economic pressure behind the push for certification. For those who have waited decades for this fishery to return, recent modest increases in biomass are meaningful. The prospect of unlocking European seafood markets at a moment of shifting trade relationships and tariff uncertainty is entirely understandable. 

The recent change in status of northern cod from critically depleted to “healthy” stems from changes in how the stock is measured, not from significantly more cod in the water.  In 2023, Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) lowered the benchmark for when the stock is considered critically depleted — from roughly 790,000 tonnes to 235,000 tonnes. Under the previous threshold, northern cod would still be classified as critically depleted today. The stock did not suddenly recover; the definition changed. DFO also adopted a new assessment model and selected a much lower benchmark for what qualifies as healthy. The result is a stock that appears healthier on paper while remaining far below pre-collapse levels. Certifying the stock now obscures the fact that it remains in a fragile state.  

Certification does more than guide consumers

Once a stock is labelled sustainable, it creates pressure to raise catches. In this case, before the stock is truly rebuilt. It sets expectations for higher quotas, boosts investor confidence, and accelerates plans to expand the fishery. If northern cod declines after being promoted globally as a recovery success story, the damage will be severe. The government’s own scientific projections show the stock will decline under increased catches, putting a real strain on the many people who depend on cod, weakening trust in DFO’s management of marine resources, reducing faith in the MSC label, and damaging the reputation of Canadian seafood.  

Capelin key to rebuilding

The biggest factor limiting cod recovery is whether they have enough to eat, and right now, food is in short supply. Capelin, their main food source, is still depleted and continues to be heavily fished. Government scientists have identified this lack of prey as the biggest barrier to cod recovery. Without rebuilding these key forage species, groundfish like cod simply won’t recover. 

More than 30 years post-collapse, the government has still not developed clear recovery targets and robust harvest rules for cod that define what rebuilding actually looks like and how management should respond as the stock changes. In their absence, Canada risks repeating the management failures that led to one of the most infamous fisheries collapses in history. 

MSC was created to prevent fisheries collapses like northern cod from happening again

I look forward to the day we can truly celebrate a fully rebuilt, productive cod stock that delivers lasting benefits to generations of fishing communities. But if northern cod declines again after being certified too soon, it will erode trust in seafood certification. Raising serious doubts about whether Canada’s commitment to rebuilding fisheries has collapsed.